Your tip. Scientifically founded.
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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the stat🎶istics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are iꦉnfluenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coinci💫denceꦑ by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conve♒rsion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that team🎃s perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and nowౠ amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins a♛re based upon a one🐈-goal-margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of m🐈atches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% oﷺf matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are s🌠cored t🅷han on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal diff🧜erente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on theᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚ other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more in🍌formative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with thei🦹r actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal differenꦫce 🌃that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence aver🌠ages out during the course of the seasꦦon. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A f🧸ootball match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offe🐈nse and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence,꧒ the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (seaso🐷n) on average.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels ta�𝓡�ke place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a 🧔“streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is ide🦩ntical for all teams. For tha🐟t reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well 🎉predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very 🤪special.
With the help of the market value and the effective diff🌸erente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction 💃of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best te♕am wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statisticall🏅y, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let yoಌu know another rime.